January 30, 2009

Super Bowl XLIII Prediction

Had something come up this week that kept me from writing the piece I'd hoped. Can't let this game go unpredicted, however, so here's a quickie, down and dirty.

The Cardinals surprised me twice--they won't do it again. With Kurt Warner playing at his current level they have a passing game that has shown it can beat anyone. His ability to make quick reads and unload accurately under pressure is the perfect antidote to a Steeler pass rush capable of turning less accomplished passers into pudding. If Anquan Boldin is right and can keep Pittsburgh from loading up on Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona could find enough seams in the Steeler defense to stay with Pittsburgh.

The Cardinals defense is still a question mark for me. Ben Roethlisberger isn't likely to miss as many open receivers as Donovan McNabb did two weeks ago. And if the Steelers are able to convert enough early third downs to extend drives, and start to beat on the Cards a bit, I can see the Pittsburgh physicality wearing them down.

Still ... the Cardinals fooled me twice. They won't fool me again. If they aren't blinded by the Super Bowl lights, come out early playing like they believe they belong there and can keep the game within a possession or two into the third quarter, with the way Warner has been playing I would not be surprised to see them walk away the most unlikely NFL champion since ... well ... you tell me.

I just don't think it's going to happen.

You may have heard this one before, but ... defense wins championships. You know how I feel about Pittsburgh defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau. Quite simply I think he's the best in the game. And he's had two long weeks to dissect the Cardinals offense. I don't expect him to "stop" the high-flying Cardinal offense, but I do expect him to slow it down. And more importantly, I expect him to force it into a couple of mistakes.

Don't be too surprised, though, if as it sometimes happens the matchup that does not get all the headlines proves to be the difference in the game. Come Monday we may all find ourselves talking not about the great Steeler defense (which they are) and soaring Cardinal offense (which they ... might), but about Pittsburgh's Big Ben Roethlisberger becoming a two-time Super Bowl winner, and first-time Super Bowl MVP, in the first five years of a suddenly Cantonesque-looking career.

Yeah, I went there.

As far as who I'm "rooting for" ... strangely, as much as I love a good underdog story, I find myself waffling this year. Maybe it's a function of getting older, but part of me wants to see the team I feel deserves the title win it rather than one that, frankly, I'm not sure I feel has earned its way to the top of the mountain just yet. Not a big fan of perennial afterthoughts crashing the King's Table on the strength of 9-7 seasons that, most years, earns you a road wildcard trip to the number one seed.

Good news, I guess, is either way I'll be able to feel good for the winner. Two interesting teams, some great story lines and two very distinct styles. Should be fun.

Pittsburgh Steelers 27
Arizona Cardinals 17


*

online sports betting

January 25, 2009

Remembering the 2008 Washington Redskins

It has only been four weeks since the Washington Redskins wrapped up their 2008 season. And yet, even as the ups and downs of a season both energizing and exhausting begin to recede in the rear view mirror, it has already begun to crystallize in memory.

Trailing in the fourth quarter of the home opener, in danger of falling to 0-2 and perhaps sending rookie head coach Jim Zorn's debut season spiraling out of control before it even gets started, QB Jason Campbell avoids a fierce New Orleans Saints pass rush and unloads deep to a streaking WR Santana Moss, turning the game around and launching Washington on an unexpected, eye-opening four-game win streak.

As time passes, some football seasons get reduced to a few lasting impressions, a few indelible images. Others just sort of ... fade away ... not so much lost as relegated to dusty boxes tucked away in a dark corner of the mind’s attic.

Today I found myself wondering how, or even if, I will remember the 2008 Redskins. And not surprisingly, doing so triggered a mental movie reel of seasons past against which they might some day be compared.

The surging Redskins go on the road and beat Dallas and Philadelphia, in consecutive weeks, on the strength of a brutal running game, an emerging Jason Campbell and an opportunistic, inspired defense. No single specific play really stands out, with the possible exception of rookie safety Chris Horton’s brilliantly choreographed game-clinching interception against Tony Romo in Dallas.
More, what emerges is the sense that this is a different Redskins team; quite possibly the first in a generation capable of reclaiming a proud organizations' rightful place among the NFL elite. What may well carry on in memory about the two week stretch is boyish owner Dan Snyder, just after the Eagles win, unselfconsciously expressing what every Redskins fan with a heartbeat felt that day.

Since trips down memory lane can easily slip from pleasant jaunts to marathon treks, I’ll begin, arbitrarily, at the dawn of The Glory Years, and offer here just a few thumbnail mental snapshots of seasons past that stand out, alongside which 2008 may, or may not, someday take its place.

1982 - K Mark Moseley’s fifth field goal of the day in the swirling December snow of RFK Stadium beats the New York Giants, clinching the Redskins first playoff berth in six long years. DE Dexter Manley steam-rolls Dallas QB Danny White in the NFC Championship, knocking him cold and out of the game. DT Darryl Grant high-steps into the end zone with Manley's deflection of a Gary Hogeboom pass, knocking out the hated Cowboys and propelling the Washington Redskins to the Super Bowl. There, RB John Riggins brushes off Don McNeal like so much sleeve lint and rumbles into immortality.

1983 - QB Joe Theismann, Riggins, The Hogs, The Smurfs and The Fun Bunch score at will all season, shattering the NFL record. Good thing too, given The Pearl Harbor Crew. They overwhelm the then–L.A. Rams 51-7 at RFK, in the divisional round, then survive the 49ers and some QB Joe Montana magic to take a second straight NFC title, before heading back to the Super Bowl and a shot at Dynasty.

Rocket Screen. Jack Squirek. Marcus Allen.

The Pittsburgh Steelers come to town. Again no one play stands out–this one turns out to be about the overwhelming sense the 6-2 Redskins are physically overmatched, and the slap-upside-the-head realization that neither the team nor young Jason Campbell are ready for prime time. 2008 swims sharply into focus–the Redskins may be 6-3, but they are not among the league elite.

1985 - NY Giants legendary LB Lawrence Taylor gestures in panic toward the Redskins sideline, having just snapped Theismann’s leg like so much kindling. A few minutes later, Jay Schroeder’s first NFL pass—a perfect downfield sideline rope to Art Monk—suggests life might go on after all.

1987 - Head Coach Joe Gibbs, on his knees, watches with the rest of us as Minnesota QB Wade Wilson's fourth-down pass to RB Darrin Nelson, Redskins' CB Darrell Green and the RFK goal line converge in the final minute to decide the NFC Championship. Two weeks later, we witness the 35-point blur of brilliant madness that is the second quarter of Super Bowl XXVI ... a moment that has long since passed from memory into legend.

1991 - Sorry–some boxes are too heavy to thumbnail.

Dallas II. On their final game-clinching drive, the Cowboys Riggo-Drill the Redskins on their own field. As captured perfectly by a similarly attuned fan, that image may well prove the defining moment and lasting memory of the 2008 season, coloring it forever as one that got away.

1993 - The Redskins thrash the Dallas Cowboys at RFK in the season opener, Richie Petitbone's head coaching debut–and the realization comes that there might be life after Gibbs. What follows is fifteen weeks of psychic whiplash, and a 4-12 finish. Perhaps there would not.

1994 - A hot, young new head coach–a Cowboy, no less–rides into town. Name of Norv Turner. A quarterback named Heath Shuler is drafted third overall. Hello, Franchise. Shuler gets picked off no less than five times at RFK by the moribund Arizona Cardinals, and the Redskins fall to 1-6. Hello, Reality. Cool rookie backup Gus Frerotte, in funky throwbacks, beats the Colts in Indianapolis a week later in his debut. Washington finishes 3-13, but that’s okay. Turner is collected, competent and confident. "What we do works."

1996 - A stirring, stunning 7-1 start. All of Redskindom is pestering Washington Post columnist Tony Kornheiser to bring The Bandwagon out of mothballs. Tony's terse answer? "After Buffalo." An average Bills team tramples–and exposes–the Redskins, 38-13. Eliminated by week 15, a decisive season-ending win over Dallas in the final game at storied RFK Stadium is rendered bittersweet.

Seattle again. One final, brutal, game-clinching drive briefly resurrects hope.

1999 - Exit the Cooke Era, enter the Snyder. FB Larry Centers glides up the San Francisco sideline to beat the 49ers and clinch a playoff berth. The Redskins dominate Gus Frerotte's Detroit Lions at FedExField in Round 1. In round 2, at Tampa Bay, Brian Mitchell takes a kickoff back 100-yards to provide a double-digit second-half lead. The Redskins D is playing great. Could it be? QB Brad Johnson throws a killer interception, and Bucs RB Warrick Dunn does a Houdini, turning a potential game-clinching fumble recovery into a game-changing Bucs touchdown. Dan Turk (RIP). No, it could not.

2000 - Hype, championship-style. CB Deion Sanders, DE Bruce Smith, S Mark Carrier, QB Jeff George. Jeff George? The celebrity Redskins under-achieve from jump, barely squeaking by Carolina, then losing to hapless Detroit. Injuries pile on injuries. 44-year-old K Eddie Murray, good for about 42 yards, is asked to come up with 49 against the Giants in a late season game ripe with playoff implications. Exit the Turner Era.

2001 - Enter Marty Schottenheimer. A flaccid 0-5 start includes one of the most disheartening games in modern Redskins history, a 37-0 shellacking at the hands of Green Bay on Monday Night Football. LB LaVar Arrington–the new face of the franchise–comes up with a "look what I found" pick-six against the Carolina Panthers to finally stop the bleeding. The Redskins slug and claw to 5-5 ... then slip, slide and gag down the stretch to finish 8-8. General, we hardly knew ye.

Back-to-back losses against the Giants and Baltimore Ravens. Once again, no specific plays stand out, only further confirmation these Redskins are not contenders. Worse, there is a deepening conviction that the organization may be fatally flawed. Watching them badly, predictably, lose the battle in the trenches against the league's better teams, with little indication the powers-that-be see the same, there is a sense this team may have truly lost its way.

2002–03 - No doubt a defense mechanism, I seem to have reduced immediate recall of The Spurrier Era to one indelible image.

2004 - The Return of the King.

2005 - a classic Gibbsian December run brings a playoff berth. The Redskins defensively dominate the Buccaneers in Tampa in Round 1. A dropped interception by CB Carlos Rogers and prehistoric offensive performance combine to leave them short in Seattle in Round 2, but no matter–the Redskins are back.

2006 - Or perhaps not.

2007 - Sean Taylor ... and tragic magic down the stretch. Jason Campbell goes down, Todd Collins comes on and sparks instant offense that leads to another successful December playoff run. Up in Seattle, a perfect bounce of a muffed Seahawks kickoff return finds its way into WR Anthony Mix's hands, and Mix roars into the end zone. It doesn’t count, of course, and ultimately the Redskins go on to lose, but for a few shining moments the Redskins are the NFL's “It” team, and the sky is the limit. Then, Joe Gibbs announces his surprise retirement.

The King is dead. Long live the King.

Up in Cincinnati in week 15, against a woeful Bengals team, the Redskins are still alive for the playoffs and a great story in Zorn’s rookie campaign. They seem to go through the motions for a half, and fall behind. What looks like a stirring comeback effectively ends with FB Mike Sellers' goal-line fumble ... and the competitive part of the season is over.

How 2008 is remembered down the road will be different for all of us, of course. We all bring our own unique perspectives, expectations and biases to the table. But it is also largely dependent on what comes next.

If the Redskins soar over the next few years, this 8-8 season could come to be remembered much like Joe Gibbs’ debut in 1980–a stepping stone to great things. Or, if they continue to stumble or just tread water, 2008 may slowly blend in with the many other isolated seasons we scarcely remember at all.

That’s how it is with memories. As they become more distant, they slowly blend into the context in which they were born.

How will 2008 be remembered? Will it be remembered at all?

Only time, and circumstance, will tell.

Hail.

January 20, 2009

January 20, 2009

Many thought this day would never come.  Many who did, died to make it happen. Regardless of our politics, religion, color, sex, age, creed or any other label that might apply ... may we all be proud today of the giant step forward made by this, our imperfect Union. 


January 16, 2009

Arizona?

For all the fun we’ve had at Jim Mora’s expense over the years, he still gets credit for uttering the single most resonant comment about the National Football League in its storied history.

“You don't know. You just don't know. You may think you know, but you don't know. And you never will."

The NFL slapped us all upside our know-it-all heads last week and reminded us of that undeniable truth. Show me one serious prognostication before the 2008 season—or for that matter, from the week between the end of the regular season and start of the playoffs—that had the Arizona Cardinals hosting the Philadelphia Eagles for the NFC Championship, and I’ll either show you a modern-day Nostradamus or someone who picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.

Seriously.

The Arizona Cardinals. Hosting the NFC Championship.

I’m 48 years old. Over the course of my lifetime the Cardinals have never been anything more than a sidebar. Yes, there have been a few interesting players and memorable moments over the years (as you would hope from a franchise that has been around since 1920) but if you pushed me for an off-the-cuff review, my Cardinal Memories could probably be summed up thusly:

Jim Hart.
Mel (Freaking) Gray.
Conrad Dobler.
Terry Metcalf.
Moving to Phoenix. Phoenix?
The 1998 playoff win over the Cowboys in Dallas.

So if you’re a Cardinals official, player or fan, please understand why so many of us are seemingly unable to give your team the “respect” you crave, and probably deserve, for what you have done to get where you are today. 

Truth is, a half-century of “who?” cannot become “whoa” overnight. It just can’t. Frankly, we’re still kind of in the whiplash phase here. We need a little more time.

A win on Sunday to send you jetting off to Tampa Bay and a shot at the brass ring in SB XLIII wouldn’t hurt either.

*

PHILADELPHIA at ARIZONA
Sunday, Jan. 18, 6:30 pm EST

I just don’t think it’s going to happen.

Not so much because of how damn hard it is for someone of my generation to envision the Arizona Cardinals in the Super Bowl, but my sense that the Eagles are still riding Destiny’s Wave.

Hey, the Cardinals can score. There are some stunned, accomplished football minds down Charlotte way who can attest to that. And their defense has been playing lights out the last couple of weeks. On top of all that, they are playing at home in windless, climate-controlled comfort, with house money. Nobody expected them to be there in the first place—they figure to play loose, let it all hang out and take their best shot.

Thing is … the Eagles defense isn’t just playing lights out, it’s playing borderline insane. You know when the Eagles last gave up a passing touchdown, which figures to be the Cardinals’ best shot? Five games ago—a garbage-time, one-yard flip from Eli Manning in Philly’s dominating 20-14 win over the Giants in New York that started them on their run.

The good news, at least for Cardinals fans, is that one week before that, in Week 12, the Eagles defense gave up three passing touchdowns to some guy named Kurt Warner. Goods news only travels so far, however.

For one, those three TD tosses came in a 48-20 home loss to these same Eagles. For two, Warner also threw three interceptions that day. And for three, the other QB that day, some guy named McNabb, threw four touchdown passes against zero interceptions.

Sorry.

I think the Eagles will do to Arizona what they did against the Minnesota Vikings in the wildcard round, only in reverse. Philly defensive coordinator Jim Johnson, one of the best in the business, sold out to take away the Vikings top (and really only) threat, Adrian Peterson and the running game. He forced Minnesota to beat him throwing the ball, and young QB Tarvaris Jackson was not up to the challenge.

Against Arizona I look for Johnson to sell out limiting the Cardinals down-field passing game, inviting them to beat him with sustained, run-heavy, short-pass drives. I don’t think running backs Edgerrin James and Tim Hightower will be up to it.

Philly won’t completely shut down stud Cardinals receivers Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin—I think the Cardinals will have some success moving the ball—I just think they’ll struggle to finish drives.

Outside of Philadelphia and certain Pennsylvanians jonesing for a Turnpike Super Bowl, I think all the NFL world is a Cardinals fan this week. I know I am. No one loves a good underdog story more than me, and there’s definitely something to be said for shaking up the NFL hierarchy from time to time.

I just don’t think that time is here.

Something tells me the Eagles’ romance with Destiny lasts at least one more week.

Eagles 26
Cardinals 20

*

BALTIMORE at PITTSBURGH
Sunday, Jan. 18, 3:00 pm EST

Anyone else found themselves thinking this week that the NFL world has done a 180?

To me, as an NFL fan old enough to remember well the 1980’s, this one has the distinct feel of an old NFC Championship grudge match. Two aggressive, powerful defenses and straight-at-you, physical running games, slugging it out in the icy January night for the right to go to the Super Bowl and overwhelm some poor finesse passing team from the AFC.

It’s like we’ve piloted a time machine 25 years into the past, only to find the world as reflected in a mirror. Or something.

At any rate …

I’ll keep this short and sweet.

Both the Raven and Steeler defenses are playing about as well right now as defense can be played. I think they will turn this into a game of attrition—field position, turnovers, last-mistake-loses. 

Vegas has the over/under hovering around 34.5 this week. If I was a betting man, I’d take the under and try to hide my grin.

Baltimore safety Ed Reed is playing on such a different level he could easily define this game with another one of those “oh no he di’ent,” game-changing plays he’s made look so routine of late. Or maybe Raven running back Willis McGahee could find a seam or two in the Steeler D and do just enough to tip the scales Baltimore’s way.

But if I had to put my own hard-earned money down, I think the deciding factor would be the one matchup I see which favors one team over the other dramatically enough to be “the” difference. Not QB Ben Roethlisberger over QB Joe Flacco, as you might be thinking—though that’s a decided advantage given the experience factor.

No, I’m thinking Pittsburgh defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau over Joe Flacco.

For my money, LeBeau is the best in the business. I think he will put his 50 years of football experience to good use, and create just enough confusion in the Ravens’ rookie QB’s mind, in enough key situations, where at some point Flacco will make the one big mistake that proves the difference.  That one misread that leads to one bad throw into traffic at one crucial juncture. That one split-second of indecision in the pocket that leads to that one strip-sack that ends up heading the other way.

I like the way Baltimore goes about their business. I like the way they have built their team, and I like the no-frills way they play the game. As much as it pains me to say it as a Redskins fan, that’s the team I’d like mine to be when it grows up.

But as much as I see echoes of the Ravens' 2000 championship team in the 2008 version, at the end of the day I’m going to take the Steelers in this one. I can’t look past the one matchup I think is the one real mis-match in this game … and for me, tips the scales.

LeBeau versus Flacco.

I did the math.

Steelers 16
Ravens 13